FLATTENING THE GLOBAL CURVE * 7 reasons why it is elusive

FLATTENING THE GLOBAL CURVE

Seven Reasons Why it is Elusive

The Pandemic Vicious Cycle

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By Bernie V. Lopez, eastwindreplyctr@gmail.com

Blogger / retired Inquirer columnist / healing ministry

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‘Exponential increase’ in mathematics means rapid acceleration. It is not additive but multiplicative. As of April 5, 2020, the global statisics are – 3.6 million coronavirus positives and 251,000 deaths. An early mathematical prediction said there would be 250,000 deaths by end of May, which many pooh-poohed as ridiculous. It is now only the start of April. It is only now people are waking up to the dark reality of rapid acceleration.

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Is it possible, if we fail to flatten the curve dramatically worldwide, there may be a million deaths by June, based on exponential mathematics applied on historical data? God have mercy on us, especially the US at the top of the list. As of April 5, the US has 1.2 million coronavirus positives and 69,000 deaths, about 25% to 30% of global totals. Is a protracted pandemic worse than a nuclear war in terms of casualties?

Seven reasons why it is hard to flatten the global curve –

Invisible infections from asymptomatic people;

Invisible infections from cured people being infected again due to the virus going ‘dormant’ rather than completely eradicated;

Invisible infections from people who lie that they are not infected or escape checkpoints in fear of quarantine;

Premature lifting of lockdowns to address individual and corporate financial survivals;

For Third World nations, massive repatriation of overseas workers defying quarantine logistics; the 30,000 or so Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) itching to go home may be a low estimate out of the millions; right now, the estimate is 1,700 arrivals per day on the average;

Too much geopolitical finger-pointing hampering health efforts;

Social unrest due to severe police-state practices triggered by rising quarantine violations, as the curve sharpens.

It is a global all-or-nothing. If only 5 out of, say, 150 nations flatten the national curves, it is not good enough. The spread will persist and increase. There must be CRITICAL MASS in flattening national curves to achieve a flattened global curve. In other words, we are all in this together in a shrinking planet, and, as humankind, we need to get our act together on a global scale. It is a test of Mankind’s ability to deal with himself in the face of a global crisis.

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