The standoff at the Straits of Hormuz is a chicken and egg situation. The US will not allow Iran to close the Straits, considering it an act of war. Iran will not allow US carriers in the Straits, threatening to attack the carrier if they do. US arrogance is not used to backing off in a confrontation, even if it is not within its territory, even if it is at fault. Iran is not going to backdown in its own backyard. Are we in the lull before the storm?
The gnawing question at present is – is the US provoking Iran into a war, with new rounds of sanctions inhibiting other nations to do business with Iran’s Central Bank? In reaction, Russia and Iran are dropping the US dollar and opting for their own currencies in their trade activities. The economic sanction can in fact boomerang, forcing Iran to sell oil and gas to the East rather than to the West. The US is actually imposing sanctions on itself, denying itself of precious energy at a time of declining sources. It is a form of energy suicide for the US and EU who need energy now more than ever, especially in the long harsher winters due to climate change. This will force the US to turn to military rather than diplomatic options in its despair for energy. The economic sanction can also be the beginning of more nations, to begin to abandon the dollar, especially in the Middle East.
Forty percent of global oil supplies pass through Hormuz. Its closure will dramatically affect global oil supply. As a result of the US sanctions, global oil prices have in fact started to climb up. The US cannot afford to have Hormuz closed. So if Iran does, it will be forced to invade Iran to open it up.
If this is the real purpose of the US, namely, to play provocateur, is this type of brinkmanship a product of the dominance of the hawks in both the Pentagon and the White House, which reflects the overconfidence of the superpower that it can prevail in any war? Who decides to make war? If it is not the American people, is it then those who run it, namely the Jewish-nominated banking and finance sector and the trigger-happy Pentagon? Yet, the US is not sure it can avoid the sinking of its Fifth Fleet in Iranian waters with the new type of Russian missiles Iran has. US brinkmanship is in truth illogical and dangerous.
The war games Iran has recently launched in the Persian Gulf are actually a psyche-war message that it will not back down in a confrontation with the US, and is strong enough to defend itself. The war games are intimidating the US further into a confrontation. In reaction, the US is amassing forces and weapons in Israel for a showdown. They are planning their own war games in reply to Iran’s. We are entering phase 2 of a possible Middle East war.
The US spent a whopping $1 trillion in the Iraq war, and a new war with the stronger Iran is predicted to double or even triple that expense. The US will overstretch its deficit spending that can be the last straw in a total implosion of the American economy. Ironically, Obama announced recently it will reduce by half a trillion dollars in ten years its defense spending. How can he say that, at the same time threaten to invade Iran? Obama says the US will stay away from ground troops and expensive protracted guerrilla wars, and will concentrate on air and naval power. Nobody wins without ground troops. To simply bomb Iran from air and sea and not use ground troops simply means a lot of Iranian civilian casualties but no occupation. It is in truth a form of genocide, which is cheaper and less casualties for America than a protracted occupation. America should procure energy by peaceful means, not by force.
A new factor will actually be in favor of Iran, namely, the new rearmament programs of Russia and China in the last ten years, who are implicity trade and energy partners of Iran. The shift of Communism towards Capitalism has left these two giants richer by far. And they are rapidly developing their armaments for a future confrontation with the US. China has built a Mach 10 missile that can take out US carriers anywhere in the world. The US has no known defense system against this lightning speed missile. As soon as you see them on radar, they are already in front of your nose. China has also built a stealth aircraft larger than that of the US, with longer range and more weapons in its belly. Iran is the beneficiary of arms from Russia and China, in case of a US invasion of Iran.
As for Russia, it has recently appropriated a staggering $640 billion for a massive ten-year rearmament program. Unlike China, Russia purchases rather than builds its own weaponry. It plans to buy armaments from France, Italy, and Israel. It especially is drooling over Israel’s unmanned drones, the weapon of the future.
So the big question is – will the US finally find the excuse to invade Iran as it did in Iraq? Such a war will polarize forces for and against the US towards World War III. World Wars I and II began with such polarizations. China and Russia will not sit idle in an invasion of Iran, and the US knows this, and is the single greatest factor in its hesitancy to invade. Many observers say the US will back down because there is just too many risks and unknowns in such a war with a foe so much stronger than Iraq, that is, if the kick-ass culture does not prevail in the White House. It is also possible that, in such a war, Iraq may side with Iran to protect the Islamic realm in the Middle East. The invasion of Iran will polarize the Islamic world.
Bernie Lopez ‘eastwind journals’ Opinyon Magazine, Jan 16, 2012 redgate77@gmail.com
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